Climate Change & Tea Industry:
“Nature is very complex & we have very little understanding of these complexities. So sometimes in our wisdom we try and alter a little & the devastating effect of it might never be known to us as we will not be able to understand what caused it.”
Over the past decade the industry has been witnessing some dramatic changes, besides its fortunes. Yields are dropping, pests and diseases are increasing & becoming more resistant, response to applied fertilizer is reducing, organic matter & microbial population in soils is reducing, weed flora is changing & becoming more resistant, water-tables are rising during monsoons & falling during the dry season, weather conditions are becoming extreme & erratic…. I am afraid, that in the recent euphoria of high tea prices, these are not being given the due importance and ‘out-of-the-box thinking’ that they must be given. We need to look deeper and ask ourselves some questions. I will leave out the market as otherwise I will loose focus.
i) Why are we generally having a steady decline in crop yields?
ii) Why are we getting such intense & widespread outbreaks of pests?
iii) Are we getting proportionate response from applied fertilizers?
iv) Is our usage of Pesticides & Fungicides reducing? Are our teas getting cleaner & safer? Is the consumer satisfied with the chemical residues in our teas?
v) What can we do to mitigate the effect of the erratic weather conditions?
vi) Are we doing anything dramatically different, from what we have always done, to tackle these changing conditions (some of which are creeping up upon us)?
But before we take these up individually, let us see the broader picture.
We need to be looking at fundamental changes in our systems and operations, rather than technological tweaking on the margins. And this means changes and costs that some of our current crop of CEOs, Proprietors & Research Associations are afraid to discuss and address.
When you have the highest technological base, the best laboratories, the biggest & best Research Institutes, the widest & most experienced knowledge base, the most diverse tea portfolio, the biggest internal market, you should want higher standards: because your industry should be able to meet them while the other countries will not be able to do so as easily. But it is us who want to drop the standards. MRLs are basic to standards and we can not get away with teas that are not clean, even for our domestic market. We saw what happened to the Colas when high residues were detected in them. As an industry we do not have the means to fight back like the Colas did. And let us not fool ourselves, many of the chemicals still permitted today will soon be banned or the MRLs reduced to such an extent that you will not be able to use them. Where do we go then ?
The erratic weather conditions will continue to plague us. The weather is not going to be what we have been used to, let us accept this and go ahead. Our drought conditions across the tea growing areas are a taste of what is to come. The most important conclusions about Climate Change disruption is that it is already accelerating and doing significant harm… likely catastrophic disruptions lurk along the business-as-usual trajectory we (not just India) are following. We need to make fundamental changes to agricultural practices to mitigate their effect.
Let us take a deeper look into some of the above points:
i) Why are we having a decline in crop yields?
There has generally been a decrease in the yields in most companies. This is in spite of increased use of nutrients, chemicals & Plant Growth Regulators. What could be the reasons?
i. Are the bushes too old? Do they need replacement?
ii. Declining fertilizer-use-efficiency? Why?
iii. Rise or fall in water tables?
iv. Climatic changes? Erratic Weather?
v. How is Soil Health? Do we need something other than the nutrients that we are applying? Or have we depleted the organic matter & destroyed the micro flora?
vi. Are there some other limiting factors?
ii) Why are we getting such intense & widespread outbreaks of pests?
a. We are using many new molecules & very potent chemicals. Yet we have increasing incidence & severity of pest attacks – Helopeltis, Mites & Looper caterpillars, …
b. New package-of-practices/schedules have been made by research with newer molecules and yet the problem is increasing!
c. IPM is also reportedly being used in some gardens.
d. Is our spraying effective & efficient enough? Why is our pesticide usage ever increasing ?!
Is there a trick we are missing? Do we need to look beyond our current approach?
vii) What can we do to mitigate the effect of the erratic weather conditions?
a. Are we radically changing agricultural practices to study & develop new ways to overcome some of these problems? The erratic weather is not only there to stay, but with our contribution also, ‘climate change’ will continue to accelerate. We have to alter our practices to mitigate its effect.
b. Have we looked at how the changes in weather conditions are affecting pests & diseases ?
iii) Are we doing anything markedly differently to tackle these problems?
a. I don’t know?! It’s the same pruning & timing of pruning, same fertilizer policy, same spraying systems & equipment, the same soil parameters & amendments, the same planting calendar, the same machinery & manufacturing systems….
b. I can’t see anything really different, except in the case of pest control. The pests are the same but hardier & more persistent. The infestation is more severe & more often. The crop damage is more. The big and constant change is the chemicals – the latest ones, with improved molecules, keep coming in and, in quick time, replacing the earlier ones. The incidence of pest, however, keeps getting worse & the chemical usage increases. Has decades of being on this ‘treadmill-of-chemical-control’ reduced our pest problems?
c. The Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) have become an ever increasing problem for the producer & also for the consumer, as he wants this healthy beverage, but without the ‘poison’. They will continue to get more stringent.
Let us look a fresh at what we could possibly do about it.
There is a Chinese proverb – “ When the wind changes direction, there are those who build walls & those who build windmills”. When we come in only with reactive chemicals to tackle our ever increasing pests, we are ‘building a wall’….
What makes me really optimistic, though, is when I now meet planters/CEOs they are forever discussing how the current chemicals/practices are not helping control pests and the problems are getting bad to worse. The CEO’s & GMs often hasten to add “… but we are quite OK, as our higher prices will more than make-up for the crop decline.” But imagine if you had the same crop with these prices! And what if pests chewed-up your crop and the prices were what they were a few years ago?!. Sadly, sooner than later, the reduction in MRLs will also contribute to my optimism, as we will be pushed out of our denial/defensive mode and take the problem head-on. The consumer will ensure that. But do we need to be kicked into doing so?
Let us not spend time on finding ways of defending why we have no option but to have these residue levels, or ask the consumer to accept these MRLs because we can not help it. The problem certainly does not have a simple solution (at least not on the path that we are treading). Let us first admit that we have NOT found the solution, only then we can move forward and look at other paths. I am NOT saying that organic is the only solution. R & D needs to be working on looking at new options & also at improving efficiency & efficacy of spraying equipment & applied chemicals.
We know very little about how different highly disruptive, nonlinear changes in climate might interact with one another and affect our crops, pests, diseases,…. But what we can do is to look at what climatic changes are likely to take place over the next 20 years - see their individual / synergistic /collective impact on various aspects of our industry. (I append a spread sheet, as a sample, that gives an idea of how we should go about it.) And then take each aspect and see how we can mitigate its effect. For example -
a. Low winter temperatures used to kill some insects/disease pathogens/fungi – these might now have longer/accelerated periods of growth.
b. The Climate Change will cause more intense weather -
i. More violent storms/winds/… ( cyclone Aila hit W Bengal, and has caused a complete disruption to the monsoon rains.)
ii. More intense downpours/flooding/…(We saw what happened in Mid August in Darjeeling causing huge land slides and erosion. If we had addressed certain steps to prevent erosion the effect would not have been that devastating.)
iii. Change in Wind patterns/velocity
iv. Change in monsoon patterns (2009 monsoon !!)
v. Change in rates of evaporation
vi. More fog/mist/smog
“Change is the one constant in life. We must realize that if we want to see things remain as they are THINGS WILL HAVE TO CHANGE: everything around us is changing.” What we can change is the way we deal with change and the way we are changed by change.
Right now, the acute awareness of the true scale & speed of the problem remains confined largely to a precious few, but soon enough it will be blindingly obvious to everyone.
· Incremental breakthroughs are all we had, but exponential is what we desperately need.
· We haven’t really tried – we need to put into place the basic requirements for trying: a coordinated set of policies, tax incentives, disincentives, and regulations that would stimulate the marketplace…. We need long-term clarity for investors to make big bets.
“ There is an almost eerie realization now, that you can’t tinker with nature’s operating system without eventually paying for it, sometime, somewhere” – Heidi Cullen (The climate expert for Weather Channel).
It is impossible to stress how important improving (energy) efficiency is & how great an impact it can have on reducing your energy bill & mitigating CC.
Instead of increasing our Chemical & Fertilizer inputs we need to find more effective use of chemicals & better fertilizer-use-efficiency. Is there some other limiting factor in our soils which is the cause of the decreasing response to currently recommended doses of fertilizers? The new government policy on fertilizer subsidy should be used as an opportunity in reduction of the major nutrients & look at other contributory factors.
Those who are opposed to the change to Organic are often overstating the cost of the change (mainly loss of crop) and understating the benefits. They are dramatically underestimating the innovations it would inspire, the emissions it would save & reverse, and the real costs it would save.
Can our machines, motors & systems be made more efficient & effective? Could we reduce energy usage, improve productivity,… Can we lower CO2 emissions, grow more fuel, get more carbon credits? Can we reduce soil wash, leeching & erosion? Can we do rain water harvesting? Can we use more natural light in our factories, offices, homes, store rooms,… ? Can we improve energy efficiency in the buildings, lights, homes, vehicles, machines, appliances, cooling & heating systems, …. Can we eliminate the concept of waste, or at least Reduce, Reuse & Recycle it? Remember the reduction in waste also means substantial savings in costs. We need to quickly adopt all the cost effective & energy efficient systems existing today and then get on with new technologies.
We need the Govt/Tea Board to level the playing field: the subsidy being given for Fertilizers is huge & thus we need to give at least proportionate benefits as incentives to farmers going organic. That will create the shift to cleaner teas. Once the costs of production fall, there will be more demand & an incentive to produce more. The best driver is the market & the Govt & the Tea Board should do their bit to aid this process.
The World is concerned about Climate Change, Green House Gasses, CO2 emissions,…. Let us not use Climate Change as an excuse for our inadequacies. Climate change is blamed for crop losses, droughts, pests, erosion,… you name it. If we resign to this we will never find ways & means to overcome things that might still be in our hands (or at least to a great extent). Yes, you can not do anything about CC in the short run, to make a difference to your immediate problems. But we can work to find what we can do to change our practices & systems to mitigate the problems.
“Nature is very complex & we have very little understanding of these complexities. So sometimes in our wisdom we try and alter a little & the devastating effect of it might never be known to us as we will not be able to understand what caused it.”
Over the past decade the industry has been witnessing some dramatic changes, besides its fortunes. Yields are dropping, pests and diseases are increasing & becoming more resistant, response to applied fertilizer is reducing, organic matter & microbial population in soils is reducing, weed flora is changing & becoming more resistant, water-tables are rising during monsoons & falling during the dry season, weather conditions are becoming extreme & erratic…. I am afraid, that in the recent euphoria of high tea prices, these are not being given the due importance and ‘out-of-the-box thinking’ that they must be given. We need to look deeper and ask ourselves some questions. I will leave out the market as otherwise I will loose focus.
i) Why are we generally having a steady decline in crop yields?
ii) Why are we getting such intense & widespread outbreaks of pests?
iii) Are we getting proportionate response from applied fertilizers?
iv) Is our usage of Pesticides & Fungicides reducing? Are our teas getting cleaner & safer? Is the consumer satisfied with the chemical residues in our teas?
v) What can we do to mitigate the effect of the erratic weather conditions?
vi) Are we doing anything dramatically different, from what we have always done, to tackle these changing conditions (some of which are creeping up upon us)?
But before we take these up individually, let us see the broader picture.
We need to be looking at fundamental changes in our systems and operations, rather than technological tweaking on the margins. And this means changes and costs that some of our current crop of CEOs, Proprietors & Research Associations are afraid to discuss and address.
When you have the highest technological base, the best laboratories, the biggest & best Research Institutes, the widest & most experienced knowledge base, the most diverse tea portfolio, the biggest internal market, you should want higher standards: because your industry should be able to meet them while the other countries will not be able to do so as easily. But it is us who want to drop the standards. MRLs are basic to standards and we can not get away with teas that are not clean, even for our domestic market. We saw what happened to the Colas when high residues were detected in them. As an industry we do not have the means to fight back like the Colas did. And let us not fool ourselves, many of the chemicals still permitted today will soon be banned or the MRLs reduced to such an extent that you will not be able to use them. Where do we go then ?
The erratic weather conditions will continue to plague us. The weather is not going to be what we have been used to, let us accept this and go ahead. Our drought conditions across the tea growing areas are a taste of what is to come. The most important conclusions about Climate Change disruption is that it is already accelerating and doing significant harm… likely catastrophic disruptions lurk along the business-as-usual trajectory we (not just India) are following. We need to make fundamental changes to agricultural practices to mitigate their effect.
Let us take a deeper look into some of the above points:
i) Why are we having a decline in crop yields?
There has generally been a decrease in the yields in most companies. This is in spite of increased use of nutrients, chemicals & Plant Growth Regulators. What could be the reasons?
i. Are the bushes too old? Do they need replacement?
ii. Declining fertilizer-use-efficiency? Why?
iii. Rise or fall in water tables?
iv. Climatic changes? Erratic Weather?
v. How is Soil Health? Do we need something other than the nutrients that we are applying? Or have we depleted the organic matter & destroyed the micro flora?
vi. Are there some other limiting factors?
ii) Why are we getting such intense & widespread outbreaks of pests?
a. We are using many new molecules & very potent chemicals. Yet we have increasing incidence & severity of pest attacks – Helopeltis, Mites & Looper caterpillars, …
b. New package-of-practices/schedules have been made by research with newer molecules and yet the problem is increasing!
c. IPM is also reportedly being used in some gardens.
d. Is our spraying effective & efficient enough? Why is our pesticide usage ever increasing ?!
Is there a trick we are missing? Do we need to look beyond our current approach?
vii) What can we do to mitigate the effect of the erratic weather conditions?
a. Are we radically changing agricultural practices to study & develop new ways to overcome some of these problems? The erratic weather is not only there to stay, but with our contribution also, ‘climate change’ will continue to accelerate. We have to alter our practices to mitigate its effect.
b. Have we looked at how the changes in weather conditions are affecting pests & diseases ?
iii) Are we doing anything markedly differently to tackle these problems?
a. I don’t know?! It’s the same pruning & timing of pruning, same fertilizer policy, same spraying systems & equipment, the same soil parameters & amendments, the same planting calendar, the same machinery & manufacturing systems….
b. I can’t see anything really different, except in the case of pest control. The pests are the same but hardier & more persistent. The infestation is more severe & more often. The crop damage is more. The big and constant change is the chemicals – the latest ones, with improved molecules, keep coming in and, in quick time, replacing the earlier ones. The incidence of pest, however, keeps getting worse & the chemical usage increases. Has decades of being on this ‘treadmill-of-chemical-control’ reduced our pest problems?
c. The Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) have become an ever increasing problem for the producer & also for the consumer, as he wants this healthy beverage, but without the ‘poison’. They will continue to get more stringent.
Let us look a fresh at what we could possibly do about it.
There is a Chinese proverb – “ When the wind changes direction, there are those who build walls & those who build windmills”. When we come in only with reactive chemicals to tackle our ever increasing pests, we are ‘building a wall’….
What makes me really optimistic, though, is when I now meet planters/CEOs they are forever discussing how the current chemicals/practices are not helping control pests and the problems are getting bad to worse. The CEO’s & GMs often hasten to add “… but we are quite OK, as our higher prices will more than make-up for the crop decline.” But imagine if you had the same crop with these prices! And what if pests chewed-up your crop and the prices were what they were a few years ago?!. Sadly, sooner than later, the reduction in MRLs will also contribute to my optimism, as we will be pushed out of our denial/defensive mode and take the problem head-on. The consumer will ensure that. But do we need to be kicked into doing so?
Let us not spend time on finding ways of defending why we have no option but to have these residue levels, or ask the consumer to accept these MRLs because we can not help it. The problem certainly does not have a simple solution (at least not on the path that we are treading). Let us first admit that we have NOT found the solution, only then we can move forward and look at other paths. I am NOT saying that organic is the only solution. R & D needs to be working on looking at new options & also at improving efficiency & efficacy of spraying equipment & applied chemicals.
We know very little about how different highly disruptive, nonlinear changes in climate might interact with one another and affect our crops, pests, diseases,…. But what we can do is to look at what climatic changes are likely to take place over the next 20 years - see their individual / synergistic /collective impact on various aspects of our industry. (I append a spread sheet, as a sample, that gives an idea of how we should go about it.) And then take each aspect and see how we can mitigate its effect. For example -
a. Low winter temperatures used to kill some insects/disease pathogens/fungi – these might now have longer/accelerated periods of growth.
b. The Climate Change will cause more intense weather -
i. More violent storms/winds/… ( cyclone Aila hit W Bengal, and has caused a complete disruption to the monsoon rains.)
ii. More intense downpours/flooding/…(We saw what happened in Mid August in Darjeeling causing huge land slides and erosion. If we had addressed certain steps to prevent erosion the effect would not have been that devastating.)
iii. Change in Wind patterns/velocity
iv. Change in monsoon patterns (2009 monsoon !!)
v. Change in rates of evaporation
vi. More fog/mist/smog
“Change is the one constant in life. We must realize that if we want to see things remain as they are THINGS WILL HAVE TO CHANGE: everything around us is changing.” What we can change is the way we deal with change and the way we are changed by change.
Right now, the acute awareness of the true scale & speed of the problem remains confined largely to a precious few, but soon enough it will be blindingly obvious to everyone.
· Incremental breakthroughs are all we had, but exponential is what we desperately need.
· We haven’t really tried – we need to put into place the basic requirements for trying: a coordinated set of policies, tax incentives, disincentives, and regulations that would stimulate the marketplace…. We need long-term clarity for investors to make big bets.
“ There is an almost eerie realization now, that you can’t tinker with nature’s operating system without eventually paying for it, sometime, somewhere” – Heidi Cullen (The climate expert for Weather Channel).
It is impossible to stress how important improving (energy) efficiency is & how great an impact it can have on reducing your energy bill & mitigating CC.
Instead of increasing our Chemical & Fertilizer inputs we need to find more effective use of chemicals & better fertilizer-use-efficiency. Is there some other limiting factor in our soils which is the cause of the decreasing response to currently recommended doses of fertilizers? The new government policy on fertilizer subsidy should be used as an opportunity in reduction of the major nutrients & look at other contributory factors.
Those who are opposed to the change to Organic are often overstating the cost of the change (mainly loss of crop) and understating the benefits. They are dramatically underestimating the innovations it would inspire, the emissions it would save & reverse, and the real costs it would save.
Can our machines, motors & systems be made more efficient & effective? Could we reduce energy usage, improve productivity,… Can we lower CO2 emissions, grow more fuel, get more carbon credits? Can we reduce soil wash, leeching & erosion? Can we do rain water harvesting? Can we use more natural light in our factories, offices, homes, store rooms,… ? Can we improve energy efficiency in the buildings, lights, homes, vehicles, machines, appliances, cooling & heating systems, …. Can we eliminate the concept of waste, or at least Reduce, Reuse & Recycle it? Remember the reduction in waste also means substantial savings in costs. We need to quickly adopt all the cost effective & energy efficient systems existing today and then get on with new technologies.
We need the Govt/Tea Board to level the playing field: the subsidy being given for Fertilizers is huge & thus we need to give at least proportionate benefits as incentives to farmers going organic. That will create the shift to cleaner teas. Once the costs of production fall, there will be more demand & an incentive to produce more. The best driver is the market & the Govt & the Tea Board should do their bit to aid this process.
The World is concerned about Climate Change, Green House Gasses, CO2 emissions,…. Let us not use Climate Change as an excuse for our inadequacies. Climate change is blamed for crop losses, droughts, pests, erosion,… you name it. If we resign to this we will never find ways & means to overcome things that might still be in our hands (or at least to a great extent). Yes, you can not do anything about CC in the short run, to make a difference to your immediate problems. But we can work to find what we can do to change our practices & systems to mitigate the problems.
